Study finds extreme daily temperature fluctuations increase
Researchers from Nanjing University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences analyzed climate records from 1961 to 2020, along with projections extending to 2100. They found that sudden, large shifts in temperature from one day to the next—a largely overlooked form of extreme weather—are becoming more frequent, more intense, and larger in magnitude.
The study links this trend primarily to greenhouse gas emissions, while noting that drier soils and greater variability in air pressure and soil moisture are significant contributing factors.
High-latitude regions have experienced fewer of these swings, but low- and mid-latitude areas in both hemispheres show a clear and accelerating increase.
Researchers warn that climate change is making daily weather far more volatile in warmer regions, and this volatility is expected to intensify through the end of the century.
The strongest increases were observed in the western United States, eastern China, parts of South America, and the Mediterranean basin. Over 10-year periods, the study recorded intensity rises of 11.1°C (20°F) in the western US, 9.4°C in eastern China, 12.4°C in South America, and 7.1°C in the Mediterranean.
Record-breaking daily temperature swings were also noted in 2022, with eastern China experiencing a 22.9°C shift and the western US recording 20.3°C. The study concludes that such extreme events are now occurring far more frequently than under historical climate conditions.
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